In the new season, the growth conditions of soybean and corn in the international market were not good, and the upward tone of the external agricultural products shocks remained unchanged. The demand for domestic agricultural products is expected to gradually warm up during the double festivals. The double supply and demand will drive the agricultural product market to interpret the “golden nine silver ten†rise.
US soybean production is expected to be downgraded. Before the US Department of Agriculture’s September supply and demand report was released, international analysts lowered US soybean production levels. Lan-worth lowered US soybean yield in 2011/12 to 40 bushels per acre, which is more than US agriculture. The ministry reported a low of 3.4% in August; the International Grains Council stated that US soybeans will reduce production by 8.2% in 2011/12, and the lowest level in the past three years is 83.2 million tons. As Hurricane Irene took away the expected precipitation and moisture in Midwest's production areas after the transit, the drought conditions of the crops could not be eased. In addition, the market has begun to pay more attention to whether the frost situation in the Midwestern region of the United States has been ahead of schedule this autumn. The growth of the last stage of soybean growth in the US soybean is still worrying.
In fact, the US soybean pod yield and growth rate are both lower than last year and five-year average levels, and continue to add more confidence to the market. Speculative funds have increased their net long positions in the bean market.
Since the peak of oil and fat consumption started gradually, the domestic oil enterprises have raised the price of terminal small packaged edible oils in order to lift the profits of soybean crushing through price adjustment. However, the 5%-10% increase still keeps crush margins flat. Below, the willingness of the oil plant to increase its price during the “golden nine silver ten†peak will gradually increase, which will have a boosting effect on the price of oil.
In general, the increase in soybean consumption should be accompanied by an increase in imports, but this year's situation is different. On the one hand, the recent domestic crushing demand for soybeans has gradually improved, and the crushing volume has increased from 1.1 million tons/week at the end of August to 1.3 million tons/week at the beginning of September; on the other hand, domestic soybean imports will decline in the later period, according to the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China. It showed that domestic soybean imports hit a total of 3.85 million tons in August, a sharp drop of 28% from July, and September's imports may decline further to 3.2 million tons. A higher crush volume coupled with a lower import volume indicates that domestic soybean port stocks will enter a falling cycle, and the rise in spot price of oil reflects the improvement in seasonal demand before the double festival.
Demand for soybean meal was boosted by the continued surge in pork prices as a result of the breeding boom. Breeding booms continued to improve, boosting domestic live pig populations and increasing numbers of fertile sows, which in turn led to the recovery of soybean meal feed requirements.
Due to the large stocks of soybean meal in the previous oil mills, it will take time for the “destocking†of soybean meal, and this kind of “destocking†has gradually become more active and active. Although the pace of terminal purchases in the domestic soybean meal market has been slow recently, both the supply and demand sides have been cautious in purchasing and selling, but the oil refinery's willingness to price increases and price increases have increased. The current spot price of 43% protein soybean meal is mostly concentrated at RMB 3,250-3,350/ton, which is higher than 7,8. The month was significantly elevated. It can be expected that under the condition that the pig-to-grain ratio is above 8:1, the state's encouraging attitude towards hog farming will increase the enthusiasm of the farmers for hoarding pigs and accelerate the demand for soybean meal.
Since grain arrived at the reasonable valuation area in late August, affected by the theme of drought in the southwest, the market is expecting a rise in the price of sensitive cereals. The wheat and corn prices will continue to rise and fall. With the valuation of the grain sector entering a reasonable investment area, the grain market There is still some upside momentum.
In recent days, the continuous rainy weather in the main wheat producing areas has caused the occurrence of wheat mildew in areas such as Henan, Anhui, and Shandong, which has increased the difficulty in the acquisition of high-quality Poma in the market, and the demand for processing by flour enterprises is gradually recovering. The contradiction between purchase and sales is difficult to resolve, and the peasants' reluctance to sell is serious, which will push the wheat price further higher.
In terms of corn, the basis for market speculation on corn futures at this stage is the change in the level of port inventory. As the northeastern port corn inventories are still in rapid decline, current inventory has fallen sharply to more than 40% from the end of July to 90- The level of 1 million tons, coupled with strong expectations for corn prices in the South Port, is expected to have a margin for domestic corn prices in the coming period.
US soybean production is expected to be downgraded. Before the US Department of Agriculture’s September supply and demand report was released, international analysts lowered US soybean production levels. Lan-worth lowered US soybean yield in 2011/12 to 40 bushels per acre, which is more than US agriculture. The ministry reported a low of 3.4% in August; the International Grains Council stated that US soybeans will reduce production by 8.2% in 2011/12, and the lowest level in the past three years is 83.2 million tons. As Hurricane Irene took away the expected precipitation and moisture in Midwest's production areas after the transit, the drought conditions of the crops could not be eased. In addition, the market has begun to pay more attention to whether the frost situation in the Midwestern region of the United States has been ahead of schedule this autumn. The growth of the last stage of soybean growth in the US soybean is still worrying.
In fact, the US soybean pod yield and growth rate are both lower than last year and five-year average levels, and continue to add more confidence to the market. Speculative funds have increased their net long positions in the bean market.
Since the peak of oil and fat consumption started gradually, the domestic oil enterprises have raised the price of terminal small packaged edible oils in order to lift the profits of soybean crushing through price adjustment. However, the 5%-10% increase still keeps crush margins flat. Below, the willingness of the oil plant to increase its price during the “golden nine silver ten†peak will gradually increase, which will have a boosting effect on the price of oil.
In general, the increase in soybean consumption should be accompanied by an increase in imports, but this year's situation is different. On the one hand, the recent domestic crushing demand for soybeans has gradually improved, and the crushing volume has increased from 1.1 million tons/week at the end of August to 1.3 million tons/week at the beginning of September; on the other hand, domestic soybean imports will decline in the later period, according to the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China. It showed that domestic soybean imports hit a total of 3.85 million tons in August, a sharp drop of 28% from July, and September's imports may decline further to 3.2 million tons. A higher crush volume coupled with a lower import volume indicates that domestic soybean port stocks will enter a falling cycle, and the rise in spot price of oil reflects the improvement in seasonal demand before the double festival.
Demand for soybean meal was boosted by the continued surge in pork prices as a result of the breeding boom. Breeding booms continued to improve, boosting domestic live pig populations and increasing numbers of fertile sows, which in turn led to the recovery of soybean meal feed requirements.
Due to the large stocks of soybean meal in the previous oil mills, it will take time for the “destocking†of soybean meal, and this kind of “destocking†has gradually become more active and active. Although the pace of terminal purchases in the domestic soybean meal market has been slow recently, both the supply and demand sides have been cautious in purchasing and selling, but the oil refinery's willingness to price increases and price increases have increased. The current spot price of 43% protein soybean meal is mostly concentrated at RMB 3,250-3,350/ton, which is higher than 7,8. The month was significantly elevated. It can be expected that under the condition that the pig-to-grain ratio is above 8:1, the state's encouraging attitude towards hog farming will increase the enthusiasm of the farmers for hoarding pigs and accelerate the demand for soybean meal.
Since grain arrived at the reasonable valuation area in late August, affected by the theme of drought in the southwest, the market is expecting a rise in the price of sensitive cereals. The wheat and corn prices will continue to rise and fall. With the valuation of the grain sector entering a reasonable investment area, the grain market There is still some upside momentum.
In recent days, the continuous rainy weather in the main wheat producing areas has caused the occurrence of wheat mildew in areas such as Henan, Anhui, and Shandong, which has increased the difficulty in the acquisition of high-quality Poma in the market, and the demand for processing by flour enterprises is gradually recovering. The contradiction between purchase and sales is difficult to resolve, and the peasants' reluctance to sell is serious, which will push the wheat price further higher.
In terms of corn, the basis for market speculation on corn futures at this stage is the change in the level of port inventory. As the northeastern port corn inventories are still in rapid decline, current inventory has fallen sharply to more than 40% from the end of July to 90- The level of 1 million tons, coupled with strong expectations for corn prices in the South Port, is expected to have a margin for domestic corn prices in the coming period.
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