Concerned about soybean oil dips buying opportunity

Although China unexpectedly raised interest rates and the State Reserve sold rapeseed oil to form a certain pressure on the market, but the overall pattern of tight supply and demand of soybean oil is expected to make its gains continue. After bad digestion, attention can be focused on soybean oil in the 9050-9100 yuan interval Low buying opportunities.

US quantitative easing expectations are strong. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that members lowered 2011 economic growth expectations and core inflation expectations, while worrying that output and employment growth will slow down in a period of time, unless the economy unexpectedly improves, otherwise further quantitative easing is still needed. Policies to promote economic growth. From the latest published data, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States unexpectedly dropped by 95,000 in September, which was significantly higher than market expectations. Both the monthly production rate of industrial production and manufacturing output fell by 0.2% in September. Weak economic data supports the Fed’s preference to adopt Further relaxed policies will likely lead to further depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which will benefit global commodity prices.

It is worth mentioning that China unexpectedly announced on the 19th that the rate hike has exerted some pressure on commodities, but this also indicates that China’s inflationary pressure is relatively large. In September, the consumer price index of residential products rose by 3.6% year-on-year, and inflation expectations increased significantly. In general, at the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle, there is a possibility that commodities, especially agricultural products, will continue to rise. It is possible that the rise of agricultural products will end when the interest rate hike cycle ends. Therefore, a short-term correction will provide a good opportunity to do more.

Supply and demand tight pattern appeared October 8, the US Department of Agriculture announced the latest report of agricultural supply and demand, the 2010/11 US soybean planting area was reduced from the estimated 7.89 million acres in September to 77 million acres, the yield from September The projected 44.7 bushels/acre was lowered to 44.4 bushels/acre, and total production was revised down to 3.408 billion bushels from the previous month, which is a 2.2% decrease from the September estimate. In addition, US soybean crushing and export volume were further increased, resulting in the reduction of 2010/11 soybean carryover stocks to 265 million bushels, which was lower than the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast of 350 million bushels in September and the analyst’s average estimate of 3.34. Billion bushels. Even more surprising to the market is that the U.S. corn yield in 2010/11 was significantly reduced to 155.8 bushels per acre, which was lower than the estimated 162.5 bushels per acre in September and an average market forecast of 160 bushels per acre, while corn production was lowered to 12.664 billion. Bushel, meanwhile, the use of corn was increased to 13.48 billion bushels, resulting in a decrease in ending stocks to 902 million bushels and an inventory-to-stock ratio falling to 7.85%, the lowest level in 10 years.

Therefore, although U.S. soybean production increased compared to last year, the sharp increase in demand made the pattern of tight supply and demand for U.S. beans appear. At the same time, due to the competitive relationship between U.S. corn and soybean, the U.S. soybean-to-maize ratio remained low. Strong corn prices will support soybeans.

Soybean oil will fall into the consumer season, or will have limited impact. As the weather turns cold, the alternative consumption of palm oil to soybean oil will gradually decline. Soybean oil will enter the season of seasonal consumption, which is conducive to the digestion of soybean oil stocks.

On October 20, the state auctioned the temporary rapeseed oil, although the results showed a strong demand for vegetable oil. However, on the one hand, compared to the monthly consumption of 2 million tons of vegetable oil, the quantity of this throw is limited; on the other hand, the policy of smooth price sales means that the spot price must be higher than the auction floor price, and the auction can be completed. Judging from the auction situation, prices and prices have risen, indicating that the market is optimistic about the price of vegetable oil in the later period. However, it is worth noting that the shelf life of the State Reserve Reserve rapeseed oil and soybean oil is approaching, and it has to face the needs of the library. In addition, if prices further increase sharply, the amount of throwaways may increase, putting pressure on the market.